Rajinikanth's Vettaiyan: Is it a sleeper hit or a box office flop?

In this day and age, more than a film's artistic merits, its box office receipts dominate debates around it. The commercial success of movies has gained undue importance among fans, something that was previously reserved for producers, distributors, and other stakeholders. Superstar Rajinikanth's latest film, Vettaiyan , is no exception.

Instead of discussing the artistic strengths and weaknesses of the movie, social media is flooded with debates about its box office performance. Why should a movie's commercial collection concern a cinema lover? Ideally, it shouldn’t. But we don't live in an ideal world, do we? So, we are learning to accept that a movie's commercial success often overshadows its artistic value.

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In the ongoing debate, questions have been raised about Vettaiyan's box office performance. It’s not an issue when the reception to a movie is clear-cut—whether it’s a super hit or an utter flop. But when a film opens to mixed reviews and experiences a lukewarm response during weekdays, it invites speculation, questions, and various interpretations.

It seems the jury is still out on Vettaiyan's commercial success. Critics of Rajinikanth claim that Vettaiyan is a major commercial failure, causing significant losses to Lyca Productions. However, that might not be entirely accurate.

Sure, Vettaiyan isn't as big a success as Jailer. To begin with, nobody expected Jailer to perform so well that it crossed the Rs 600 crore mark at the box office, setting a new benchmark for Rajinikanth’s future projects.

From the start, it was clear that Vettaiyan wasn’t another Jailer, and director TJ Gnanavel's sensibilities are vastly different from Nelson’s. This was understood by audiences, as reflected in Vettaiyan's pre-release ticket sales, which were not as strong as Jailer's. We have previously discussed how Vettaiyan could be Rajinikanth’s first "sleeper hit" in decades. 

Vettaiyan opened to an encouraging response, but as expected, its business didn’t explode as Jailer's did. The audience’s reaction fluctuated, raising doubts about its overall commercial success.

A movie is typically considered successful if it recovers its production cost through ticket sales and earns a profit for the producers. The worldwide theatrical value of Vettaiyan was estimated at Rs 160 crore. According to trade sources, if it grosses over Rs 300 crore globally, it will be considered a hit. The key question: has Vettaiyan crossed the Rs 300 crore mark? The short answer is, there's no clear answer yet.

Lyca Productions previously claimed that Vettaiyan earned over Rs 240 crore in global ticket sales during its extended four-day opening weekend. This placed Vettaiyan in a relatively safe zone. Despite mixed reviews, the film benefitted from long holidays and minimal competition at the box office, giving it much-needed space to maximize its earnings.

Lyca has not yet revealed the latest gross earnings as Vettaiyan nears the end of its second week in theatres. However, it’s safe to assume that Vettaiyan has maintained a steady pace. For example, it is fast approaching the Rs 25 crore mark at the Karnataka box office, continuing to enjoy a good number of screens despite new releases like Jigra and Martin.

In Kerala, Vettaiyan achieved break-even status by grossing over Rs 13 crore within five days of its release, even surpassing the lifetime earnings of Thalapathy Vijay’s The Greatest of All Time there. The film is reportedly doing well overseas too, especially in markets like Singapore and Malaysia. With no major releases slated until the end of October, Vettaiyan has a strong chance of solidifying its box office gains, albeit at a slower pace.

Based on current trends, it’s reasonable to expect that Vettaiyan may achieve hit status by the end of its theatrical run. While it may not match the glamorous and decisive success of Jailer, it will still be a win, nonetheless.

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