World Test Championship: Will loss at Bengaluru hurt Team India's WTC final chances? Here's what we know

Tom Latham and his team ended a 36-year drought for a win in India. Their last Test victory came in 1988 when a John Wright-led squad defeated Dilip Vengsarkar's team by 136 runs at the Wankhede Stadium in Mumbai. With this, New Zealand secured only their 3rd Test win on Indian soil, chasing down a modest target of 107 runs in Bengaluru to take a 1-0 lead in the three-match Test series. 

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What has this win done? It lit up the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) points table. The BlackCaps soared up the WTC standings from sixth to fourth, with their win-loss percentage climbing to 44.44%. Meanwhile, India's percentage dropped from 70.83% to 68.06%, loosening their previously firm grip on a place in the WTC final. 

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A Test win in India 36 years in the making 🏏 pic.twitter.com/wtF3VQmuaV

— BLACKCAPS (@BLACKCAPS) October 20, 2024

So could this one defeat derail India's WTC final dream?

Despite of the Bengaluru defeat, India is still comfortably leading the WTC table. India still has control over its destiny, as it faces two more home Test matches against New Zealand and a five-match series in Australia. To guarantee a berth in the WTC final, they must win at least four of their remaining seven games and gain two draws.

With these outcomes, India would have a 67.54% win-loss percentage at the end of the cycle, which would probably guarantee them a place in the final. South Africa, which is now at 38.89%, would need to win all six of its remaining games to achieve the maximum of 69.44%. As for the Aussies, in their five-Test series against India, they could achieve a maximum of 64.04% if they win four games, tie two, and lose one.

Put differently, while the defeat to New Zealand might damage India's image as an unbeatable team, it has little bearing on their prospects of making it to the championship game.

New Zealand's win in first #INDvNZ Test shakes up the #WTC25 standings 👀

More ➡️ https://t.co/aGNt1GAOJA pic.twitter.com/FmuwwDwTyZ

— ICC (@ICC) October 20, 2024

Other teams in the mix:

Australia, South Africa, and Sri Lanka—India's main rivals—face significant challenges. With seven Tests remaining, Australia is in second place with a 62.50% win-loss record. Even if they won everything, they would still be within reach of India at 76.32%.

South Africa could finish at 69.44% if they win all six remaining Tests, but they face tough opponents like Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Even five wins would leave them at 63.89%, allowing India to surpass them.

After two recent wins, third-place Sri Lanka faces South Africa and Australia in four important Test matches. Their percentage would rise to 69.23% if they won all, but any errors, such as over-rate penalties, might endanger their hopes.

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Interestingly, the Kiwis are also back in the hunt after their victory in Bengaluru. New Zealand has an outside chance of qualifying with three games left, including two against India. They might reach a win-loss percentage of 64.29% if they win every game they have left. It's crucial to remember that winning three games might not be enough to get them over the 50% threshold, which makes their task extremely difficult.

Bangladesh and the West Indies are essentially out of the running, as they both sit at the bottom of the table. Neither team would even approach the 60% mark that is probably needed to place in the top two, even if they were to win their remaining games. England, after losing their last Test against Pakistan, dropped one spot to fifth place with 43.06% points. Despite breaking their 11-match winless streak at home, Pakistan remains in ninth place with only 25.93% points.

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